South Africa stands at a critical energy crossroads this winter. Eskom, the country’s power utility, warns that load shedding could be triggered if unplanned outages aren’t controlled. Initially, Eskom set a target to keep breakdowns below 13,000MW to avoid power cuts. However, recent data reveals this limit has been consistently breached for two consecutive months.
Eskom’s latest report highlights that from 30 May to 5 June 2025, unplanned outages averaged 14,644MW. This figure is not only 1,644MW above Eskom’s safe threshold but also 2,315MW higher than the same period last year. These numbers indicate a fragile balance that could easily tip into widespread load shedding.
Winter Outlook: A Delicate Situation
In its winter forecast, Eskom remained cautiously optimistic, stating that its base case anticipated no load shedding. Yet, the utility acknowledged that if breakdowns exceed 13,000MW, the country could face up to 21 days of Stage 2 load shedding under worst-case conditions.
The unpredictability of Eskom’s system became evident earlier this year. Between January and April, South Africa faced five rounds of load shedding, contradicting Eskom’s summer outlook that predicted minimal disruptions. Instead of the forecasted Stage 1 at worst, the country endured 14 days of outages reaching up to Stage 6.
May 2025 saw a brief return of load shedding, with three days of Stage 2 cuts occurring between 13 and 15 May. These outages totaled 18 hours, primarily during evening peak periods.
Slight Improvements Amidst Persistent Challenges
The Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA) offered a glimmer of hope in its recent Electricity Update. The report noted a decline in Open-Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) usage and a reduction of over 1,500MW in planned maintenance. These improvements helped raise Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) to 59.3% in May, a nearly three percentage point increase.
MCSA’s chief economist, André Lourens, explained that this improvement aligns with Eskom’s seasonal strategy of scaling back maintenance during high-demand winter months. However, unplanned outages still hovered around 13,500MW in May and 15,223MW in April.
For the financial year so far, Eskom reports that average unplanned outages stand at 13,760MW. The utility attributes much of this increase to “outage slips,” where scheduled maintenance extends unexpectedly due to technical issues.
Generation Recovery Plan Shows Progress — But Risks Remain
While these modest gains signal that Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan might be making headway, experts caution that the grid remains vulnerable. Lourens emphasized that although load shedding in May was limited, its recurrence underscores ongoing systemic weaknesses.
Eskom’s 52-week outlook acknowledges that load shedding remains a threat in the coming weeks. The Generation Adequacy Report identifies a potential shortfall of 2,001MW between 16 June and 20 July. A deficit of this size would likely force at least Stage 2 load shedding, in line with Eskom’s winter projections.
Despite the mounting pressures, Eskom maintains that the national grid remains “strained but stable.” The utility’s ability to hold this line will be closely monitored as South Africa navigates the critical winter months.